Petrochemical market will gradually stabilize

In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic petrochemical market transactions were relatively light. Although the international market price of oil and petrochemical products both rose, the prices of major domestic petrochemical products also declined slightly. It is expected that as the demand of downstream companies increases, the price of petrochemical products will tend to be stable overall, and the price of some products will increase slightly.
In February, although the oil price in the international market was reduced in OPEC, the demand for colder heating oil in the northern hemisphere increased, the U.S. economic growth speeded up, and the U.S.-Iraq nuclear dispute intensified, etc., but the domestic companies were affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream companies started to work. The rate dropped, the demand weakened, and the prices of major petrochemical products continued to decline slightly overall. According to the monitoring of the chemical market in 36 large and medium-sized cities, the average price of polyethylene in February was 12,894 yuan (ton price, the same below), a decrease of 0.93% from the previous month and an increase of 12.92% year-on-year; the average price of polypropylene was 12,330 yuan, a decrease of 1.95% from the previous month. The year-on-year increase was 10.26%; the average price of PVC was RMB 7,024, a month-on-month decrease of 1.94% and an increase of 1.22% year-on-year; the average price of polyester chips was RMB 11,346, a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year increase of 4.61%.
In February, as natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia entered the cut-off period one after another, the supply of natural rubber in the international market decreased, and prices continued to rise. The average futures price of natural rubber for the Shanghai Futures Exchange in February was 21,266 yuan, up 12.39% month-on-month; the average spot price was 20159 yuan, up 13.15% from the previous quarter. Driven by the increase in the price of natural rubber, the average price of synthetic butadiene rubber for 36 large and medium-sized cities in February was 12,928 yuan, up by 3.28% from the previous month and up by 15.77% year-on-year.
In the coming period, the changes in the oil price in the international market and the production status of downstream companies will remain the main factors affecting the price changes of petrochemical products:
First, the high oil price in the international market will still play a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products. At present, although the oil price in the international market has dropped by more than 70 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of last year, the year-on-year decline is not significant. Among them, the average spot price of WTI crude oil in New York for February was 59.27 US dollars/barrel, down only 3.83% year-on-year, while the gasoline price in the Singapore market was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, the current international oil price is still at a relatively high level in the same period in history. At the same time, as the economy of the United States and Japan rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter of last year, the European economy also showed signs of further growth. The International Energy Agency expects that global crude oil demand in 2007 will increase by 1.55 million barrels per day, which is higher than the earlier forecast of 300,000 barrels per day. s level. Therefore, in the period to come, it will be very difficult for the oil price in the international market to drop sharply again. The continued high oil price operation will still have a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products.
Second, the production of downstream companies also has an important impact on the price of domestic petrochemical products. In March, downstream petrochemical companies will resume production, and some companies will have lower raw material inventory before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the demand for petrochemical products will increase in the short term, which will have a certain pulling effect on the price of petrochemical products. However, due to the macro control and the long-term high raw material cost, the sales revenue and profit growth rate of some downstream industries have shown a downward trend. Poor operating conditions will make downstream companies more cautious in production and procurement, which will make it difficult for petrochemical products to continue to rise sharply.
Third, continuous increase in production capacity will also affect petrochemical product prices to some extent. In recent years, due to the sharp rise in the prices of petrochemical products, some petrochemical production plants have been built in China, and the production capacity of petrochemical products has increased significantly. According to relevant information, the designed annual production capacity of several large-scale polypropylene production plants built in 2006 was nearly 1.5 million tons. These devices will be put into operation one after another this year. If these capacities are converted into production, they will have a significant impact on the domestic market and prices of related petrochemical products in the future.

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