***Effects of exchange rate changes on China's import and export of mechanical and electrical products

The Effect of the Change of RMB Exchange Rate on China's Import and Export Trade of Mechanical and Electrical Products

China's mechanical and electrical products trade started late. Its total import and export volume was only US$19.97 billion in 1985. The State Council made a strategic decision to expand the export of mechanical and electrical products in 1985. During the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period, it further promoted the policy of expanding exports of mechanical and electrical products. China's mechanical and electrical industry began to develop with good policy support. This article is assisted by Shanghai Wuyue Pump & Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. for sharing and sharing. Shanghai Wuyue is a professional safety valve manufacturer. It mainly produces various kinds of air compressor safety valves, fluorine-lined safety valves, and provides related product technical support for life units.

Under the background of the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the import and export of mechanical and electrical products are facing new opportunities and challenges. The study of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's import and export of mechanical and electrical products also has great practical significance. Through comparative analysis:

In the long term, there is a significant positive correlation between the change in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the import of electromechanical products in China, and the volatility of the exchange rate has no significant effect on it; in the short term, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is negatively correlated with the import of electromechanical products in China. Through the VAR model, we have verified that there is a three-month lag between China's imports of mechanical and electrical products and changes in exchange rates, which also indicates that J-curve effects may exist in China's electromechanical products.

China's import and export of mechanical and electrical products meet Marshall-Lerner condition, and the sum of import and export flexibility of China's machinery and electronic products is 3.434>1. In other words, the value of RMB's real effective exchange rate can, to a certain extent, promote the net export of China's machinery and electronic products.

Changes in exchange rates will affect the import structure of China's mechanical and electrical products, as reflected in: When the appreciation of the renminbi, will make the proportion of transportation in the import of mechanical and electrical products will be relatively increased, followed by a rise in the share of metal products, and machinery, electrical appliances and instruments The proportion of imports will be relatively lower.

Changes in exchange rates will affect the export structure of China's machinery and electronic products, as shown by the following: appreciation of the renminbi will reduce the share of metal products in exports of machinery and electronic products, while the share of machinery and equipment will increase; while the devaluation of renminbi will cause the export of metal products in machinery and electronic products. The share rose, while the share of machinery and equipment exports fell.

On this basis, in order to stabilize the import and export trade of electromechanical products, optimize the trade structure of electromechanical products, put forward reasonable countermeasures for exchange rate adjustment policies and exchange rate risk aversion measures:

Electromechanical products belong to the electromechanical category with relatively high technological content and strong international competitiveness. The negative impact of exchange rate volatility will affect the overall competitiveness of China’s electromechanical products exports, and thus affect China’s economic development. Therefore, under the background of RMB appreciation, Should try to ensure the stability of the process to avoid severe fluctuations, in the process, you can set a range of exchange rate fluctuations in order to achieve more effective control.

The appreciation of the renminbi will benefit imports and will be detrimental to exports. This will damage the economic interests of the electromechanical exporters. Therefore, to avoid the economic risks brought by exchange rate changes, it will be beneficial to the export of China’s electromechanical products, and it will be beneficial to the economy of our country. development of. The methods of exchange rate risk prevention can be: 1. Choose the correct pricing currency, payment collection and payment method and settlement method; 2. Use hedging method, and use the financial innovation tools such as forward contract trading, futures trading, options trading and other reasonable control currency risk.

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